• In 2024, China's central economic meetings highlighted challenges of overcapacity in certain industries. High-level visits and discussions with the U.S. and Germany focused on capacity issues, leading to new bilateral mechanisms for economic balance and growth discussions.
• Rapid export growth in sectors like electric vehicles and photovoltaics has drawn global attention to China's production capabilities, raising concerns about overcapacity despite a strong market demand projected for the future.
• Discussions around capacity utilization rates reveal varying standards across industries and countries, with no universal benchmark for ideal rates. China's industrial capacity utilization hit a low in early 2024, prompting debates on whether emerging industries can be judged by current supply-demand metrics alone.

【本文系数据通用户提前专享】新兴行业出现产能过剩了吗？原因何在？如何化解？

重点做好五方面工作：支持加快发展新质生产力、支持扩大有效需求、支持增进民生福祉、支持扩大高水平对外开放、深化财税体制改革

2024年财政发力不必悲观，从实际资金使用角度看，2024年广义财政支出力度或超10%

在看到经济社会发展取得重大成就的同时，也要看到挑战和困难

• China's steel industry faces overcapacity with a 9.4 billion ton apparent consumption of crude steel in 2023, profits down by nearly 24%, and an average sales profit margin of only 1.32%.
• The Chinese government's "flat control" policy on steel production was not strictly enforced, leading to continued strong output and a lack of effective reduction in production despite environmental transformation efforts.
• Structural changes in demand are evident, with reduced domestic construction but increased exports, while the China Mineral Resources Group has struggled to significantly impact iron ore pricing negotiations despite its establishment to improve purchasing power for Chinese steel companies.

【本文系数据通用户提前专享】铁矿石价格坚挺，上游强势依旧；房地产需求低迷，下游缩量且结构大调整。业界争议2024年是否限产

铁矿石价格坚挺，上游强势依旧；房地产需求低迷，下游缩量且结构大调整。业界争议2024年是否限产

2023年，全国粗钢产量10.19亿吨，同比持平，基本实现年初制定的产量“平控”目标；但实际限产政策未得到真正落实，国内铁元素供给量增幅不小

中国此前两次走出低通胀时的政策配合，也有助于应对当前的物价形势

近年来财政形势的核心症结在于有限财力与无限支出责任的矛盾，这一定程度上源于政府与市场的边界越发不清晰，政府的兜底责任越发增加，具体体现为经济社会风险财政化

2024年将继续实施积极的财政政策，适度加力、提质增效，财政形势总体仍将处于紧平衡态势，收支矛盾还可能阶段性加剧

分行业的GDP平减指数表明，一二产业出现了供求失衡和结构性产能过剩，第三产业此前经过一轮产能出清，已基本实现供求再平衡

中央加杠杆和赤字率突破3%预计不会是短期的一次性政策，而是应对中长期经济和财政形势的两个必然转变

- In July 2023, China's manufacturing sector contracted again while the service sector expanded. The overall economic recovery momentum weakened.- The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July was 49.2, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating contraction. The Caixin China Services PMI increased slightly to 54.1. The overall Caixin China Composite PMI decreased to 51.9, the lowest since February.- The different trends between the Caixin and official PMIs may be due to variations in industry conditions. Both manufacturing PMIs showed contraction, with declines in production and new export orders, but increases in input and output prices. The service sector PMIs also differed, with a slight increase in new business for Caixin and a decrease for the official index.

“置换化债+金融支持化债+特别国债”的政策组合，有望一定程度上解决土地财政缺位、地方财政收支压力大的突出矛盾，财政将在本阶段稳增长中发挥主导作用

预计下半年在隐性债务化解和城投平台转型和剥离过程中，债券市场风险与机遇并存，对待非标债券相对审慎，城投平台公开债不会出现违约冲击

下一步可以通过适当下调个税税率，释放更多减税空间给中低收入阶层，预计此举可减税1200亿-1700亿元，虽则拉动消费幅度不大，但覆盖面广、减税效果具有持续性，居民获得感更强

预计在5—7年建设周期下，城中村改造年均投资额为6300亿元—8900亿元，考虑到本轮城中村改造以社会资本为主体，预计每年撬动的信贷资金为5000亿元—7000亿元