在当前菲利普斯曲线凹陷区间内，美联储将继续保持高利率水平更加持久

港股短期内需警惕情绪过热和交易型资金带来的波动风险

• In 2024, China's central economic meetings highlighted challenges of overcapacity in certain industries. High-level visits and discussions with the U.S. and Germany focused on capacity issues, leading to new bilateral mechanisms for economic balance and growth discussions.
• Rapid export growth in sectors like electric vehicles and photovoltaics has drawn global attention to China's production capabilities, raising concerns about overcapacity despite a strong market demand projected for the future.
• Discussions around capacity utilization rates reveal varying standards across industries and countries, with no universal benchmark for ideal rates. China's industrial capacity utilization hit a low in early 2024, prompting debates on whether emerging industries can be judged by current supply-demand metrics alone.

【本文系数据通用户提前专享】新兴行业出现产能过剩了吗？原因何在？如何化解？

大宗上涨是商品属性的需求驱动还是金融属性的交易或配置驱动？是普涨行情还是结构型机会？

曾是多年经济学家和多家国际组织管理者的韦浩思表示，在一个行业快速发展而且有光明前景的背景下，不可避免会在某一些时间点出现产能过剩，一般情况下，这些过剩的产能能在市场竞争中被自然吸收

中国经济在超预期结构性复苏，围绕房地产+基建的内循环依然收缩，但外循环的动力开始增强并牵引制造业加快回暖

一个可行办法是推升需求，通过提高家庭收入或完善养老、教育来降低储蓄率；若消费支出在GDP中占比更高，对供给侧进行大规模投资的必要性也会下降

在历史的降息周期中，美债利率回落，美元债投资价值的确定性较高

长久期利率债前期赚钱效应明显，除了利率债基金之外，信用债基金、短债基金和二级债基等都有不同程度的参与。利率快速下行之后，交易盘获得了可观的浮盈并且迅速止盈

2023年，洛阳钼业铜、钴、铌、磷肥产量均创新高，净利增长35.98%；其中，钴产量同比增173.71%，超越嘉能可，成为全球第一大钴生产商

鲍威尔重申今年某个时候开始减少政策限制可能是合适的，但他也表示关注通胀重新抬头的风险，也有可能将目前的政策利率持续更长时间

前期两大主线高股息及AI处于相对偏高位置，分析建议月内关注低位业绩板块补涨、新主题轮动方向，待4月财报季开启市场关注点或再度切回景气及业绩

中央银行扮演一个国家的经济宣讲人的角色，它们描述经济趋势，解释说明为何其政策符合当下的情况。而美联储未能给出为什么美国经济在高利率环境下持续具有韧性的宏观视点，这使得市场更为波动

要用结构化的思维来理解总量问题，中国通缩与通胀的表现是总量层面的，根源却要从结构上去寻找

当缩到一定程度，供给体系遭到破坏，产出萎缩，而此时又恰恰会发生重大的系统性风险，让当局放弃过去的战略定力而全面货币化，名义需求会逐渐拉起，通胀型去杠杆正式启动。但只要坚守市场经济的导向，让企业家组织生产补足产出缺口，就不会发生恶性通胀

巴克莱表示，除经济数据强劲外，未来几个月供应增加以及美联储降低整体债务期限的目标也值得谨慎

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“外循环”走向修复，为“内循环”走向再平衡创造良好环境，也有助于人民币汇率的稳定。机电产品是出口结构的亮点，或提振装备制造业工业增加值表现

• Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts, countries and companies are reevaluating the balance between energy security and transition, with supply chain stability gaining unprecedented attention. China's commitment to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 highlights a significant economic and social transformation towards enhancing oil and gas exploration and developing a new energy system.
• The global shift towards green, low-carbon energy requires both traditional and new energy sources. China's leading role in the new energy sector is evidenced by its substantial exports in new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products. Industry leaders emphasize the importance of seizing reform opportunities for development, balancing supply stability with transformation, and building a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient energy system.
• Challenges include ensuring energy supply amid growing demands and transitioning to green energy. Key strategies involve increasing domestic oil and gas production, promoting nuclear power as a clean energy source, leveraging technological innovations for efficiency improvements, fostering international cooperation for resource acquisition, and encouraging private sector participation to enhance global competitiveness in the new energy landscape.