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涨价潮来袭,通胀交易到了么[周君芝]

本轮涨价潮背后的经济真实图景是,目前海外仍处在一个“类衰退”阶段,中国债务周期尚未迎来拐点

2024-05-23
中国地产的另一个大时代[周君芝]

理解当下中国地产现实,理解中国地产政策方向,我们都需要充分关注到,中国房地产已经从一个大时代(投资品时代)迈向另一个时代(消费品时代)

2024-05-21
人民币资产,又添积极“信号”?[赵伟]

交易层面,远期汇率的走强、风险逆转因子的走低、离在岸价差的收窄,释放了人民币延续升值的信号

2024-05-20
地产政策“组合拳”的效果评估[易峘]

目前地产市场更重要的“再平衡”力量,是市场自身供需和价格的调整、出清过程。鉴于目前地产去杠杆周期可能已经进入下半场,本轮政策“组合拳”的边际效果有望优于此前数轮

2024-05-19
Consumption Downgrade? The Hottest May Day Holiday Signals New Tourism Norms[Caixin Weekly Sneak Peek]

  • The tourism industry saw a significant boost during the recent May Day holiday, with domestic travel reaching record highs and outbound travel recovering due to visa-free policies. However, per capita spending remained low compared to pre-pandemic levels.
  • Despite a total of 295 million domestic trips and a 13.5% increase in total spending from pre-pandemic levels, daily per capita consumption was only three-quarters of what it was before COVID-19. Issues like mispricing and supply-demand imbalances were evident.
  • Outbound tourism showed promising recovery signs, with inbound tourists increasing by nearly 99%. Visa-free policies for certain countries significantly boosted inbound tourism, although overall cross-border travel has only recovered to about 80% of pre-pandemic levels.

2024-05-18
最新财新周刊|旅游业寻找供需新平衡[商业]

出入境游激增,小城游兴起,人均消费拉低,“最火‘五一’”喻示旅游业应回归常态

2024-05-18
【周刊提前读】消费降级? 最火“五一”假期预示旅游新常态[特报]

【本文系数据通用户提前专享】出入境游激增,小城游兴起,人均消费拉低,“最火‘五一’”喻示旅游业应回归常态

2024-05-18
鲍威尔:一季度抗通胀缺乏进展 但加息可能性不大[要闻]

鲍威尔重申,美联储的下一步行动不太可能是加息,美联储更有可能将政策利率维持在现有水平

2024-05-15
关注部分名义指标改善的持续性[易峘]

从去年下半年开始,市场明显淡化了对“实际增速”的关注,更看重企业盈利能力的变化,而名义增长和企业盈利的同步性,明显高于实际增长

2024-05-13
日元干预: “顺势而为”时较为有效[易峘]

日央行干预并不是日元贬值的“尽头”,但货币政策在内外需和稳定预期间的平衡是否被打破,可能最终促使日央行在“干预汇率”和“加息/缩减扩表”中重新选择

2024-05-07
【港股速递】外资涌入热情高涨 港股进入技术性牛市[特报]

而更为长远的看,港股能否持续上行的关键,在于海外后续长线配置型资金能否接力,配置型资金更关注经济基本面的改善,直达需求端的财政政策或是改善关键

2024-05-07
美联储降息难,加息亦难[程实]

在当前菲利普斯曲线凹陷区间内,美联储将继续保持高利率水平更加持久

2024-05-03
【研报精华】港股反弹 能否持续?[特报]

港股短期内需警惕情绪过热和交易型资金带来的波动风险

2024-04-29
In-Depth: The Complex Causes of Overcapacity Need Response From Supply and Demand Sides[Caixin Weekly Sneak Peek]

  • In 2024, China's central economic meetings highlighted challenges of overcapacity in certain industries. High-level visits and discussions with the U.S. and Germany focused on capacity issues, leading to new bilateral mechanisms for economic balance and growth discussions.
  • Rapid export growth in sectors like electric vehicles and photovoltaics has drawn global attention to China's production capabilities, raising concerns about overcapacity despite a strong market demand projected for the future.
  • Discussions around capacity utilization rates reveal varying standards across industries and countries, with no universal benchmark for ideal rates. China's industrial capacity utilization hit a low in early 2024, prompting debates on whether emerging industries can be judged by current supply-demand metrics alone.

2024-04-27
【周刊提前读】深度:本轮产能过剩成因复杂 供给端与需求端须同时应对[特报]

【本文系数据通用户提前专享】新兴行业出现产能过剩了吗?原因何在?如何化解?

2024-04-27
大宗商品:K型复苏[吴金铎]

大宗上涨是商品属性的需求驱动还是金融属性的交易或配置驱动?是普涨行情还是结构型机会?

2024-04-15
渣打集团韦浩思:中国新经济行业出口还会增加 全球经济增长不能没有中国参与[要闻]

曾是多年经济学家和多家国际组织管理者的韦浩思表示,在一个行业快速发展而且有光明前景的背景下,不可避免会在某一些时间点出现产能过剩,一般情况下,这些过剩的产能能在市场竞争中被自然吸收

2024-04-13
中国与世界:大背离与再平衡[赵建]

中国经济在超预期结构性复苏,围绕房地产+基建的内循环依然收缩,但外循环的动力开始增强并牵引制造业加快回暖

2024-04-09
耶伦答财新:针对产能过剩 有供给侧也有需求侧应对之道[要闻]

一个可行办法是推升需求,通过提高家庭收入或完善养老、教育来降低储蓄率;若消费支出在GDP中占比更高,对供给侧进行大规模投资的必要性也会下降

2024-04-08
降息周期,如何布局全球投资机会[王龙]

在历史的降息周期中,美债利率回落,美元债投资价值的确定性较高

2024-03-27
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