预计未来12个月房价下跌的受访者占比超过预计房价将上涨的受访者；烂尾楼风险仍是受访者最大的担忧之一；调查显示低线城市居民、中低收入群体以及较为年轻的房主可能更容易受到房价下跌的冲击

4月信贷较弱的重要原因之一是政府债券发行节奏远不及去年

• During China's May Day holiday, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong saw a significant rise, achieving nine consecutive days of gains by May 3, rebounding over 20% from its January low and entering a technical bull market. Concurrently, the Shanghai Composite Index also showed positive performance, rising to around 3155 points by May 9.
• Positive outlooks on China's market were expressed by foreign institutions like BNP Paribas and UOB Kay Hian, attributing confidence to Chinese government's supportive measures for capital market health and adjustments in real estate policies. These included easing restrictions on property purchases and sales.
• The central government's April meeting highlighted ongoing economic challenges such as insufficient demand and high operational pressures on businesses. It emphasized the importance of real estate as a drag on economic performance while discussing new policy measures to optimize housing supply and demand.

• In April 2024, China's manufacturing sector saw a slight improvement with the Caixin Manufacturing PMI reaching 51.4, while the services sector experienced a minor decline with the Caixin Services PMI at 52.5. Despite these mixed results, overall economic recovery continued to accelerate.
• Employment pressures remain significant despite growth in both sectors, with job indices showing contraction and employment rates hitting the lowest point of the year in April. Additionally, material costs rose due to increases in metal and oil prices, impacting corporate profits.
• The Chinese government is advised to maintain consistent and continuous policies to support economic growth and improve market expectations amidst challenges such as insufficient demand and rising deflation risks.

未来几个月整体出口可能重回同比增长，上调全年出口增长预测至3.5%

4月供需扩张加速，就业、价格未现实质性改善；宏观政策要避免前紧后松，重点是有效落实已出台政策，房地产、化债政策或有松动

【本文系数据通用户提前专享】房地产企稳攸关中国经济，本轮复杂性远超过往。如何扭转预期？

【本文系数据通用户提前专享】4月供需扩张加速，就业、价格未现实质性改善；宏观政策要避免前紧后松，重点是有效落实已出台政策，房地产、化债政策或有松动

服务价格反弹与食品价格季节性下跌的影响互相抵消，4月CPI同比增速或与3月持平；受国际大宗商品价格上涨的影响，PPI同比降幅或收窄

新增信贷预计高于去年同期，其中对公贷款同比多增，零售贷款同比少增；新增社融低于去年同期，国债发行后续是否提速仍有待观察

4月工业生产、消费、投资、出口等同比增速或不同程度改善，房地产投资仍低位徘徊拖累经济

工业生产同比增速可能改善至5.5%；房地产销售可能仍深陷同比下跌，但跌幅或小幅收窄；整体固定资产投资可能持稳于4.5%左右； 社零同比增速可能改善至5%，；低基数有望推动出口同比增速改善

我们认为改革议程可能包括公共服务和社会保障体系改革，包括户籍制度和养老金体系改革

• China's GDP in Q1 2024 exceeded expectations with a growth rate of 5.3%, slightly higher than the last quarter of 2023 and above the forecasted average of 4.9%. This growth was driven mainly by improvements in the industrial and service sectors, contributing over 90% to the GDP increase.
• Despite robust economic performance at the start of the year, concerns remain about slowing macroeconomic indicators in March, such as industrial production and retail sales, which were below market expectations. However, fixed asset investment showed significant improvement.
• Major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS have revised their forecasts for China's annual economic growth upwards due to stronger-than-expected export growth. The IMF is also considering revising its growth projections for China following these positive results.

一季度经济持续回升、开局良好，经济恢复仍不平衡，房地产业进一步下沉与一些地方可支配财力明显下降需要及早重视

【本文系数据通用户提前专享】一季度经济持续回升、开局良好，经济恢复仍不平衡，房地产业进一步下沉与一些地方可支配财力明显下降需要及早重视

鉴于一季度经济增长强于预期，我们认为政府在短期内可能不愿意进一步加码宽松政策，而是继续落实已经出台的政策措施和执行两会确定的政策方案

综合目前数据表现，均显示外需改善持续支撑出口表现。尽管受高基数拖累，一季度出口环比有所改善，全年出口预测有上行风险。短期内，高基数仍可能拖累4月出口同比下跌

经济基本面边际改善，受上年同期高基数影响，3月工业生产、消费、投资、出口等同比增速或回落

3月房地产“小阳春”成色不足，对居民贷款形成压制，企业信贷仍需政策支撑；M2与M1增速“剪刀差”有望收窄