债市走牛的逻辑比较清晰，增长动能偏弱叠加货币宽松。股市走牛往往伴随着三个宏观条件，一是经济悲观预期见底；二是金融条件转向宽松；三是增量资金入市

“固收+”可以通过“+”的部分在全市场进行多资产、多策略的资产配置，降低组合内资产的相关性，提升组合的风险收益比

市场看准的可能也是美联储即使不欲降息，但美国政府债务利息过高的压力，也终究让美联储没有太多的选择

个体层面的安全第一，加总到宏观层面恰恰没有安全可言。“搞钱”难，还钱难，正是通缩的症状。为防范通缩及其经济和金融风险，还需要更有力、更有想象力的政策

金融体系的每一次变化，看似跟随政策起伏波动，但事实上每一轮金融周期穿透到底层，都是经济周期

• After the 2024 Spring Festival, Yulun Steel Trade Co., Ltd. in Baotou, Inner Mongolia declared bankruptcy, unable to deliver goods or refund over 100 million yuan collected from about 50 merchants for winter storage. The company had not placed orders with steel mills despite receiving payments and was investigated after merchants reported it to the police.
• The steel industry faces a downturn due to sluggish real estate market demand, leading to significant losses and bankruptcies among steel traders. National actions include controlling crude steel production and encouraging industry self-regulation to mitigate risks amidst falling prices and demand.
• The broader economic challenges include tightened investment due to debt reduction policies across provinces, impacting construction projects and contributing to a cautious market outlook. Despite some recovery signs in April 2024, the steel sector's struggles reflect deeper issues of oversupply and weak demand within China's transitioning economy.

钢铁市场需求超预期低迷，库存高企、价格急跌，钢企与贸易商进入防风险模式，政府紧急出手调控粗钢产量

【本文系数据通用户提前专享】钢铁市场需求超预期低迷，库存高企、价格急跌，钢企与贸易商进入防风险模式，政府紧急出手调控粗钢产量

海外业务逐步加深对医药板块估值的影响，一方面授权转让交易显著增长，工程师红利逐步显现，另一方面，主要出海地创新药品价格高于国内，对于医药企业的利润端有正向作用

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黄金产业链上市公司的股价长期来看与金价同向波动，但波动幅度明显更剧烈，牛市中黄金股表现更好，熊市中金价抗跌能力较强

中国迫切需要全球流动性环境的改善，然而，日元加息让中国面临新的不确定性。日元加息后，人民币资产无论是股和债，都产生了巨大的波动

• China's asset management industry is undergoing significant changes, with investors reevaluating strategies to adapt to the country's economic structural transformation. Traditional investment strategies are struggling due to increased market noise and regulatory changes, highlighting the need for a novel approach.
• Various investment strategies, including trend extrapolation, high-frequency trading, and event-driven approaches, have become less effective in the current environment characterized by structural changes and policy shifts. This necessitates a shift towards more systemic and holistic investment frameworks.
• A new "systematic investment" framework is proposed, focusing on identifying primary contradictions within the system structure, inferring possible evolutionary paths, and dynamically implementing aligned strategies. This approach aims to better adapt assets to the evolving environment and enhance wealth creation in an era of transformation.

【本文系数据通用户提前专享】系统化投资的框架以适应环境为目标，而非相信某个历史经验一定再现

系统化投资的框架以适应环境为目标，而非相信某个历史经验一定再现

未来红利板块是否也有行业轮动？潜力高股息板块会有哪些？

在历史的降息周期中，美债利率回落，美元债投资价值的确定性较高

旧常态同样有能力轻松维持当前此轮牛市，但人们却看不到这一点，反而幻想出仅凭七只股票便足以带动股市增长的神话，而这种对市场潜力的低估，或许是最好的消息

日本经济正面临一个重要的转折点。要更好地了解日本经济的现状和未来走势，不妨借用两个脍炙人口的童话故事，从中找出日本经济的定位，并思考在展望未来时可能含有的寓意

【本文为财新数据通用户专享内容导读】更多精华内容还有：黄金ETF带动另类投资基金大涨；生猪价格回落震荡；春节后大型港口离港船舶数量回升；增税是减少美国政府债务的好方法吗；谁将成为日本政策转向中的赢家和输家