今年4.30政治局会议肯定了开年以来的经济表现，认为积极因素增多、实现良好开局，但仍然保持了积极的政策基调，并未因一季度经济数据“开门红”而出现政策转向

考虑到日元贬值对提振通胀预期、吸引外资流入的边际作用快速递减，虽然日央行仍将保持宽松的货币政策，但对日元进一步大幅贬值的容忍度也将降低

多国都在推行延迟退休，中国的改革酝酿时间跨度之长，波及面之广，足见改革之难。与此同时，养老保险15年最低缴费年限的规定也面临调整。改革如何推进？

物价低迷已成为中国经济的一个长期现象，应以更大力度的宏观调控有效推动物价回升

本轮库存周期从2023年三季度触底持续至今，底部超过以往的一个季度左右，同时工业产能利用率持续下降，反映信心和需求不足

• In 2024, China's central economic meetings highlighted challenges of overcapacity in certain industries. High-level visits and discussions with the U.S. and Germany focused on capacity issues, leading to new bilateral mechanisms for economic balance and growth discussions.
• Rapid export growth in sectors like electric vehicles and photovoltaics has drawn global attention to China's production capabilities, raising concerns about overcapacity despite a strong market demand projected for the future.
• Discussions around capacity utilization rates reveal varying standards across industries and countries, with no universal benchmark for ideal rates. China's industrial capacity utilization hit a low in early 2024, prompting debates on whether emerging industries can be judged by current supply-demand metrics alone.

【本文系数据通用户提前专享】新兴行业出现产能过剩了吗？原因何在？如何化解？

两部委谈财政与货币政策配合 央行称二级市场买卖国债不是QE；储能锂电池投资降温 3月新增产能规划环比近腰斩；跨境理财通优化效果显著 “南向通”客户数3月激增近12倍

央行公开市场操作可以配合财政进行赤字融资，但国债发行规模要相对足够大，同时发行节奏要相对稳定，才能有效实现政策传导，也能避免市场利率大幅波动

努雷舍夫表示，哈中两国已准备好在永久全面战略伙伴关系的框架下讨论任何事务

• China's GDP in Q1 2024 exceeded expectations with a growth rate of 5.3%, slightly higher than the last quarter of 2023 and above the forecasted average of 4.9%. This growth was driven mainly by improvements in the industrial and service sectors, contributing over 90% to the GDP increase.
• Despite robust economic performance at the start of the year, concerns remain about slowing macroeconomic indicators in March, such as industrial production and retail sales, which were below market expectations. However, fixed asset investment showed significant improvement.
• Major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS have revised their forecasts for China's annual economic growth upwards due to stronger-than-expected export growth. The IMF is also considering revising its growth projections for China following these positive results.

一季度经济持续回升、开局良好，经济恢复仍不平衡，房地产业进一步下沉与一些地方可支配财力明显下降需要及早重视

【本文系数据通用户提前专享】一季度经济持续回升、开局良好，经济恢复仍不平衡，房地产业进一步下沉与一些地方可支配财力明显下降需要及早重视

宏观数据上呈现“三重背离”：一是实际增速与名义增速之间的背离，二是宏观数据与微观推断之间的背离，三是经济数据与金融数据之间的背离

2023年对PPI降幅影响靠前的三个行业对PPI的下拉影响接近40%，这与一些行业调整带来的相关产业链调整有关；PPI调整已经开始呈现出降幅收窄的态势

如何从中国历史上的产能周期与产能过剩，审视当下产能过剩的结构特征，探讨化解本轮产能过剩的相关策略