当前财政形势已发生重大变化：一是财政收入“两个比重”下滑现象有所突出，二是现有分税制对于政府间的财政分配功能转弱，控债务与稳增长是重点关切

2024年财政发力不必悲观，从实际资金使用角度看，2024年广义财政支出力度或超10%

税制改革、深化税收征管改革、推进财政资源统筹和预算管理、完善转移支付体系、央地事权划分和省以下财政体制改革，在今年及未来一段时间将有哪些改革措施

• China's economy aims for a 5% GDP growth in 2024, maintaining the same target as in 2023, with an emphasis on job creation and income growth. The government plans to focus on stimulating economic vitality, managing risks, and improving social expectations to sustain recovery momentum.
• Fiscal policy will moderately increase with a deficit rate set at 3%, matching the previous year's initial budget. Special long-term sovereign bonds worth 1 trillion yuan will be issued for major national projects and security capacity building. Monetary policy will ensure that the scale of social financing and money supply matches economic growth and price level targets.
• Reforms to enhance internal vitality include promoting private enterprise development, accelerating the construction of a unified national market, and planning a new round of fiscal and tax system reforms. These efforts aim to address challenges such as insufficient effective demand and weak social expectations while supporting high-quality development.

【本文系数据通用户提前专享】财政发力以中央显性加杠杆为主，支出更多向民生、科技领域倾斜，改革重点逐渐明确

财政发力以中央显性加杠杆为主，支出更多向民生、科技领域倾斜，改革重点逐渐明确

当前全国经济运行趋势向好发展，大部分省份一般公共预算收入同比大幅增长，但财政收支缺口仍大；大部分省份2024年到期城投债占比超1/3，债务到期压力不容忽视

从收入规模看，2023年土地出让收入排名前十的省份依次为：江苏、浙江、山东、四川、广东、上海、湖北、湖南、安徽、北京。从收入增速来看，已公布数据的28个省份中，22个省份2023年土地出让收入陷入负增长

目前市场的焦点在于宏观调控能否实现双扩张，在人口、债务和房地产调整周期下刺激政策能否有效出台？当下A股的逻辑就在于此

五大高频词对应2024年四大经济工作主线；地方层面，“经济大省要真正挑起大梁”指引下，多个经济大省对2024经济工作表态积极

近年来财政形势的核心症结在于有限财力与无限支出责任的矛盾，这一定程度上源于政府与市场的边界越发不清晰，政府的兜底责任越发增加，具体体现为经济社会风险财政化

• China's economic recovery in the first year after three years of COVID-19 prevention and control measures shows a wavy and tortuous progression. The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 11-12, 2023, emphasized stabilizing growth and high-quality development, marking the return to prioritizing economic construction after two years.
• The conference highlighted challenges such as insufficient demand, weak expectations, industry overcapacity, domestic circulation blockages, and increased complexity and uncertainty in the external environment. It set forth "five musts" for economic work in the new era, with a focus on technological innovation leading modern industrial system construction.
• Fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive with an anticipated budget deficit ratio exceeding 3% for the second consecutive year. Monetary policy will aim for precision and effectiveness. Structural reforms are planned to boost confidence among private enterprises and attract foreign investment. A new round of fiscal system reform is also anticipated.

【本文系数据通用户提前专享】宏观政策如何协调配合，如何深化重点领域的改革，才能“稳中求进”，实现高质量发展？

宏观政策如何协调配合，如何深化重点领域的改革，才能“稳中求进”，实现高质量发展？

针对下阶段尤其是明年的财政政策，建议打破3%赤字率约束，以支出政策为主、收入政策为辅，推动政策方向从重投资转向投资与消费并重，增强财政政策不同方式的系统集成性

经济数据回暖有助于提振信心和预期，但也应注意到，当前还是结构性恢复而非全面恢复，宏观总需求不足、微观主体信心不足的问题还没有得到根本性解决

要充分认识到减税降费不是万能的，通过落实法治和稳定政策来解决企业家的期盼

“绩效”，这是一个在医院管理教科书和最佳医院实践案例上经常出现的词汇，但是中国医院管理者却非常漠视

“加强教育公平，打破城乡二元，推进养老精算”

债务置换本质上是中央信用注入。中央信用注入并非没有对价，对价是财政纪律重塑，这在历史上已被充分演绎