假若中国外部环境改善，国内持续打造市场化、法治化、国际化的一流营商环境，企业、居民的信心加速修复，市场秩序不断完善，伴随经济结构调整加速推进， “消失”的经济周期将重现江湖

未来几个月整体出口可能重回同比增长，上调全年出口增长预测至3.5%

全球经济体普遍转暖，但整体增长主要由服务业拉动，除美国以外的发达经济体制造业仍然持续疲软

经济与就业形势整体向好但基础尚待夯实，民营企业经营压力加大岗位创造力下降

• After the 2024 Spring Festival, Yulun Steel Trade Co., Ltd. in Baotou, Inner Mongolia declared bankruptcy, unable to deliver goods or refund over 100 million yuan collected from about 50 merchants for winter storage. The company had not placed orders with steel mills despite receiving payments and was investigated after merchants reported it to the police.
• The steel industry faces a downturn due to sluggish real estate market demand, leading to significant losses and bankruptcies among steel traders. National actions include controlling crude steel production and encouraging industry self-regulation to mitigate risks amidst falling prices and demand.
• The broader economic challenges include tightened investment due to debt reduction policies across provinces, impacting construction projects and contributing to a cautious market outlook. Despite some recovery signs in April 2024, the steel sector's struggles reflect deeper issues of oversupply and weak demand within China's transitioning economy.

钢铁市场需求超预期低迷，库存高企、价格急跌，钢企与贸易商进入防风险模式，政府紧急出手调控粗钢产量

【本文系数据通用户提前专享】钢铁市场需求超预期低迷，库存高企、价格急跌，钢企与贸易商进入防风险模式，政府紧急出手调控粗钢产量

有色金属板块冲高回落

全球制造业出现复苏，资源国表现更好；美国金融条件边际转宽、补库意愿渐强，或是带动全球制造业修复的主因

随着内外需同步改善，去年下半年越南经济开始触底反弹，今年可能仍处于再通胀及上升周期，预计越南实际GDP增长6.3%

3月制造业PMI超预期，A股迎来普涨行情

一季度美国通胀并未如预期那样下行，“二次通胀”风险上升，美联储或只降息一次

中国经济周期运行的逻辑正在发生变化

1月，财新中国制造业PMI录得50.8，需求仍显著弱于供给

目前市场的焦点在于宏观调控能否实现双扩张，在人口、债务和房地产调整周期下刺激政策能否有效出台？当下A股的逻辑就在于此

市场成交低迷，沪深成交额仅6100亿元

虽然名义利率已经连续多年大幅下降，但实际利率仍然走高，实体经济依然活力不足，货币政策也难言实质性宽松

估计四季度GDP环比增速可能小幅放缓，但低基数效应可能推动四季度GDP同比增速上升0.5个百分点至5.4%，预计2023年全年GDP增速为5.2%-5.3%

2023新兴市场总体表现优于发达经济，经济增速的分化将持续到2024年

财新制造业PMI连续第二个月位于扩张区间；国家统计局制造业PMI连续三个月低于荣枯线，或因基础原材料企业景气度低迷所致